With the demise of leading investment bank Lehman Brother in September 2009, US subprime mortage crisis has seen its fallout spread from within one nation to the entire world, as the nature of the crisis has transformed from a shake-up of the financial market into a potential contraction of the global economy, which threatens to hurt the PC/NB industry well into 2009. In terms of demand, freeze or at least squeeze of corporate spending on IT products has continued to affect commerical NB market. Meanwhile, credit crunch has had its influence felt in the forms of withered private-sector investment and consumption and an urge to look for cheaper NB products. Therefore, in the commericla or consumer NB markets alike, demand will remain weak in the near term, which will act as cause for concern over NB shipment grwoth in the coming year. But despite such dire demand outlook, Mr. Jane Tseng, a researcher with the Topology Research Insititue (TRI) indicates that in 2009, global NB shipment should still grow by 17.19% to 150mn units, deriving growth steam from more addordable Netbook models, acceleration of NB’s replacement of DT, and from improved prevalence of mobile Internet connection kicked off by the emergence of HSDPA.

Affordable Netbook emerges as a fast grower

At a time when global IT industry is overcast by pessimism, Ms. Tseng goes on to comment that NB is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 2009 because of a new breed of NBs that feature slim form-factor, low energy consumption, improved afforadability, and on-th-go Internet connection have brokend new ground and posted some very satisfying sales figures even when the times are bad, and their success has encourged different brand-name NB players to get a slice of the Netbook market. In 2008, with the exceptions of Apple and SONY, most other top-ten NB brand names such as HP, Dell, Lenovo, Asustek, and Acer have joined the race, with Asus and Acer oozing the most enthusiasm, as they have both collaborated with telecoms to launch packages of Netbook and wireless Internet service subscription. In 2009, Netbook will continue to play key growth driver for the NB industry, with annual shipments projected to exceed 27mn units and challenge 32mn units.

Stepped-up replacement of DT by NB

In addition, with people substituting NB for DT at an accelerated pace, more affordable Netbook assuming the mainstream, and ASP of NBs characterized by a free fall to narrow the price difference between NB and DT, TRI expect NB penetration of the entire PC market will exceed 50% for the first time to replace DT as the PC of choice for the majority of users.

NB with built-in HSDPA marks the inception of the era of wireless Internet connection

For further PC prevelance in the developed economies, portable devices with Mobile WiMax, HSPA, LTE and other wireless broadband networking technologies built in, such as NB, Netbook, and MID, will play crucial roles. In 2008, most consumers buy external 3.5G Network card attachable to their NB to gain access to high-speed wireless connection. In 2009, Asus and Acer will change that by introducing NB models that have 3.5G wireless broadband modules embedded inside. On the other hand, with introduction of Intel Capella platform pushed back to 4Q09 at the soonest, most NB vendors will focus on products using Atom/Centrino Atom platform for the better part of next year, appealing to consumers with 12.1-inch NB that features slimness, light-weight, and go easy on electricity.

Brand name giants are engaged in seesaw battle; Taiwan ODM plants faces serious tests

If the huge shipments of Netbook are factored into the calculation of NB market shares, then we are bound to see a major reshuffling of industrial standings among NB brand-name vendors. In the process, Acer will take a shot at world No. 1 while Asus will fight for a spot among the top-five NB brand names in the world.

For Taiwanese NB ODM plants, with the contribution from Netbook orders, their annual shipments will continue with fast-trace growth in 2009. But faced with uncertain economic environment, upstream supply that’s getting tigher, increased pressure to compete with ever lower price, heightened operating risks, and the fact that more EMS players are crossing over to NB ODM sector, we expect 2009 to be a highly challenging year for NB ODM companies.